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Pack back vs what actually came out
A completed Solana digital pack opening mints 10 cards. Grouped card records let us compare observed contents with the odds printed on the pack back. The tools below use separately verified opening events. Physical packs opened outside the digital system are not included.
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| Tier | Pack back says | Observed | 95% interval | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common Base | 5 per pack | 5.00 | 4.99 to 5.00 | Below claim |
| Common Foil | 54% of packs | 55.2% | 54.3% to 56.1% | Above claim |
| Uncommon Base | 3 per pack | 3.01 | 3.00 to 3.01 | Above claim |
| Uncommon Foil | 32% of packs | 33.6% | 32.7% to 34.5% | Above claim |
| Rare Base | 0.75 per pack | 0.747 | 0.739 to 0.755 | Matches |
| Rare Foil | 8% of packs | 8.2% | 7.7% to 8.7% | Matches |
| Prestige Base | 0.21 per pack | 0.210 | 0.203 to 0.218 | Matches |
| Prestige Foil | 2% of packs | 2.5% | 2.2% to 2.8% | Above claim |
| Legendary Base | 0.04 per pack | 0.0423 | 0.0387 to 0.0462 | Matches |
| Legendary Foil | 0.5% of packs | 0.41% | 0.3% to 0.5% | Matches |
The pack back states two different things, and we check each one the way it is written.
Pack back source: Photo of the physical pack back (Rarity Economics, per card pack), shared by the community. The pack back also prints serialized odds, which are not checked here. Which serialized cards are already in packs? Every opened pack had exactly 10 cards.
34,798 pack equivalents issued on Solana. Rips use the card mint count divided by 10. The total balances with sealed holdings and completed conversions. Checked .
The official print run is 240,000 packs (2,400,000 card slots). Opening a digital pack burns its token, then mints 10 cards in separate steps.
Claims, sealed boxes and official pack rules.
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24 of 24 hourly points recorded. Gaps are unknown, not zero. The time marks the hour of the check, not an exact rip time.
New rip points use card mint totals divided by ten, measured between adjacent hourly checks. Gaps mean no checked interval. Older saved points keep their original method.
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24 of 24 hourly points recorded. Gaps are unknown, not zero. These saved records do not extend to the present.
Pack token mint records start . These can include packs returned by breaking a box, so they are not an issuance count.
On Solana, packs are named Mudwater Pack 0 to 9. Opened share by type, from the saved snapshot:
| Pack | Sealed | Opened | Opened % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mudwater Pack 0 | 2,938 | 1,165 | 28.4% |
| Mudwater Pack 1 | 2,996 | 1,107 | 27.0% |
| Mudwater Pack 2 | 979 | 286 | 22.6% |
| Mudwater Pack 3 | 1,001 | 264 | 20.9% |
| Mudwater Pack 4 | 977 | 288 | 22.8% |
| Mudwater Pack 5 | 976 | 289 | 22.8% |
| Mudwater Pack 6 | 975 | 290 | 22.9% |
| Mudwater Pack 7 | 985 | 280 | 22.1% |
| Mudwater Pack 8 | 974 | 291 | 23.0% |
| Mudwater Pack 9 | 983 | 282 | 22.3% |
Checking sealed supply. Last checked count. .
A box holds 24 packs and a case holds 240. Official combine announcement. All figures below use the same checked count.
| Product | Products on Solana | Equivalent packs |
|---|---|---|
| Loose sealed pack | 18,234 | 18,234 |
| Sealed box | 134 | 3,216 |
| Sealed case | 9 | 2,160 |
34,798 pack equivalents issued on Solana. Combining moves sealed contents between products. Breaking a box does not issue its contents a second time. Physical holdings are not counted here.
At most 9,533 after the digital rips counted here.
At most 953 after the digital rips counted here.
The official ceilings shrink as physical product is opened (mfigge). Combining depends on matching sealed stock in the warehouse (0xQuit). That stock is not measured on Solana, so these are upper bounds, not a count of what is available.
The activity breakdown is not enabled yet.
Look closer at the evidence
Three optional views of checked history. Open a tool to load the shared sample.
Pack rules, claims and print-run allocation. These announcements are separate from measured digital counts.
The official claim checker shows the packs still available to a BAYC or MAYC. The published allowance is 10 packs per BAYC and 2 per MAYC, claimed through a Totem.
Claim deadline: .
0xQuit announced the checker. Check eligibility and the latest terms on the official site. This portal does not connect a wallet or submit a claim.
24 packs make a box (240 card slots). 10 boxes make a case (240 packs).
Combine 24 sealed digital packs into a box, or 10 boxes into a case, on the official combine tab. They can be broken back down. Nothing is opened until a pack is ripped. Official announcement. Official collections.
mfigge gives ceilings of up to 10,000 sealed boxes and 1,000 sealed cases. These shrink as physical product is opened.
0xQuit explains that digital packs can be redeemed into a digital box, and boxes into a case. Each requires enough matching sealed physical stock in the warehouse.
Sealed digital products earn $APE reflections. 0xQuit says sealed boxes and cases receive a boost. The size of the boost has not been published.
Moving between digital and physical is listed as coming soon in the official app. This report will only count it after the activity has been checked.
0xQuit has said: Legendary and Prestige serials are in normal packs. Common, Uncommon and Rare serials are reserved for separate serialized packs.
He confirmed Legendary versions are 1/1 and Prestige serials are numbered to 5 per card. These are different runs, separate from base and foil.
The Common, Uncommon and Rare serialized packs will be randomly airdropped, and he confirmed they will be free. Those posts do not announce a release date. This report counts base and foil digital copies on Solana, not a separate serialized population.
| Rarity | Cards in tier | Numbering per card | Total run | Pack type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 8 | 1/1 | 8 | Normal packs |
| Prestige | 14 | /5 | 70 | Normal packs |
| Rare | 13 | Not announced | Not announced | Serialized packs |
| Uncommon | 30 | Not announced | Not announced | Serialized packs |
| Common | 55 | Not announced | Not announced | Serialized packs |
0xQuit confirmed the 1/1 and /5 numbering. Multiplying those runs by the main set's tier sizes gives 8 Legendary 1/1s and 70 Prestige /5 serials across the print run. These are separate from base and foil counts.
Serialized packs guarantee a serialized Common, Uncommon or Rare. Normal packs have a chance at Prestige /5 serials or Legendary 1/1s, without that guarantee. The 1/1s come from normal packs, not serialized packs.
Printed serialized odds are not applied to the separate serialized-pack pool here. No pull count or estimated supply is worked out from these runs. Pulls that official accounts report are listed below.
Official reports of Legendary 1/1s and numbered Prestige /5 serials. These are different runs, counted separately. Each report links to the original post.
Official 1/1 and /5 numbering, with tier sizes from the card list.
| Card | Card type / run | Pulled as | Reported | Official source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not yet named | Legendary 1/1 | Physical | @mfigge post |
No Prestige /5 pull has been reported by an official account yet.
Physical pulls are separate from the digital copies on Solana counted on this site. A card that is not listed may still have been pulled; it just has not been reported by an official account.
@mfigge published the allocation of 10,000 boxes, or 240,000 packs. It covers physical and digital distribution together. Pack equivalents below use 24 packs per box.
| Allocation | Boxes | Packs | Share of print run | What it covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community airdrop | 7,134 | 171,216 | 71.34% | BAYC and MAYC pack claims, plus a box for each ape at ApeFest. |
| Commercial distribution reserve | 2,000 | 48,000 | 20.00% | Reserved for commercial distribution. |
| Community onboarding | 566 | 13,584 | 5.66% | Community events and onboarding. |
| Partner communities | 300 | 7,200 | 3.00% | Otherside holders, ApeChain and EVM communities, and gacha, X and Solana campaigns. |
Total: 10,000 boxes, 240,000 packs, 100%.
Separately, 34,798 pack equivalents were issued on Solana as of . This is an issuance count, not an opened-pack count or a claim on any allocation bucket.